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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Confessions of an iPhone User: Why I Don't Like Windows Phone 7
After using a Windows Phone 7 smartphone for the past couple weeks, there are some issues I have with the new mobile OS that made me long for the return of my iPhone 4.
Trina Solar CEO Discusses Q3 2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL)
Q3 2010 Earnings Call
November 30, 2010 8:00 AM ET
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High-Frequency Trading
High-frequency trading (HFT) has become a catch-all term for any type of securities trading where computers carry out trades at lightning-fast speeds. The name conjures images of complex artificial intelligences that try to outsmart and out-trade one another, and in a very small minority of cases there's an element of that. But most HFT strategies are fairly simple, operate on the sell side of the market, and are focused on the mechanics of efficiently routing and cheaply executing orders that are generated by a buy-side customer (human or machine).
One type of HFT strategy is called "iceberging," and means hiding a very large buy or sell order from the market by breaking it up into smaller pieces and doling it out to different exchanges or dark pools. The idea is to keep other market participants from detecting that there's a large order in the process of being executed, and thereby trading against it. Other types of "predatory" algos exist solely to detect these iceberging HFTs and trade against them for profit.
There are some HFT strategies that work on the buy side, and essentially act as robotic day-traders. Momentum strategies are particularly amenable to the HFT treatment, and we've heard that some statistical arbitrage strategies work at very high time frequencies, as well.
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Direct2Drive lights a fire sale on 2K titles this week
Continue reading Direct2Drive lights a fire sale on 2K titles this week
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Economic data
Nov Consumer Confidence was slightly better than expected at 54.1 vs the forecast of 53 and is up from 49.9 in Oct. It’s the best since June. The gain was mostly led by the Expectations component which rose to the highest since May rising 6.7 pts while the Present Situation was up just .5 pt. [...]
The Joy Of Stats
Hans Rosling’s famous lectures combine enormous quantities of public data with a sport’s commentator’s style to reveal the story of the world’s past, present and future development. Now he explores stats in a way he has never done before – using augmented reality animation. In this spectacular section of ‘The Joy of Stats’ he tells [...]
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Blog Post: Setting Up a SharePoint Developer Virtual Machine on SharePoint SideShow
Paul Stubbs and Donovan Follette just posted another episode of the SharePoint Sideshow on Setting Up a SharePoint Developer Virtual Machine. Video below and more resources at the link.
Enjoy!
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With Domain Name Seizures Increasing, It's Time For A Decentralized DNS System
We've already written about the latest legal loss for The Pirate Bay, as well as Homeland Security's new domain seizure campaign. With the former, the entertainment industry has already declared that it hopes this ruling will lead ISPs in various countries to start blocking The Pirate Bay entirely. It may also seek to use other tools -- like the pending COICA bill -- to see if it can seize the domain name. This presents all sorts of troubling questions concerning free speech and prior restraint. However, as is often the case when the law does a weak job trying to respond to a changing technological world, technology figures out a way to leap ahead.
Case in point, fresh off the legal loss, Peter Sunde, who has been focused on Flattr rather than The Pirate Bay, for quite some time anyway, has noted that he's working with some folks to set up a competing root server system that avoids ICANN. ICANN, of course, has been instrumental in helping Homeland Security with its domain seizures (and has apparently handed over Sunde's domain names to the recording industry in the past). The idea, apparently, is to set up a truly distributed and more secure DNS system that does not rely on a single party, like ICANN.
This certainly seems like a big challenge, and one that has a high likelihood of failure. But it does appear that we're seeing more and more problems with the way ICANN operates (though, it's been trouble since it first came into being). An alternative system, actually set up by folks who understand the technology could actually catch on, and could present a serious challenge for those who think they can censor the web in any manner -- whether for political or corporate purposes.
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Case in point, fresh off the legal loss, Peter Sunde, who has been focused on Flattr rather than The Pirate Bay, for quite some time anyway, has noted that he's working with some folks to set up a competing root server system that avoids ICANN. ICANN, of course, has been instrumental in helping Homeland Security with its domain seizures (and has apparently handed over Sunde's domain names to the recording industry in the past). The idea, apparently, is to set up a truly distributed and more secure DNS system that does not rely on a single party, like ICANN.
This certainly seems like a big challenge, and one that has a high likelihood of failure. But it does appear that we're seeing more and more problems with the way ICANN operates (though, it's been trouble since it first came into being). An alternative system, actually set up by folks who understand the technology could actually catch on, and could present a serious challenge for those who think they can censor the web in any manner -- whether for political or corporate purposes.
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Companies Come Out Of The Woodwork To Claim Comcast Is Violating Net Neutrality... But Exaggerations Abound
Network neutrality gets thrown around all too often, quite frequently in misleading ways. As the NBC/Comcast merger gets closer, there were two separate claims that Comcast is violating net neutrality on Monday, probably in an effort to derail the merger or at least include greater restrictions. Of course, it's not entirely clear if either is really a "net neutrality" issue. The first is the more dubious. Cable modem maker Zoom complains that Comcast has jacked up "device testing" costs, creating additional hurdles for Zoom's modems to be used by Comcast customers. I'm reading through the details, and I'm struggling to see how this is, in any way, a "neutrality" issue. It just seems like a stretch by people who are generally against the merger. This has nothing to do with content discrimination and seems more like a standard business relationship complaint.
The other complaint is at least a bit more interesting -- but details are still lacking. Level 3 claims that Comast has told it that it will need to pay up to let Comcast subscribers access online movies offered by Level 3. I'm not familiar with Level 3's online movie offerings -- so if anyone has details, please let us know. Based on Level 3's statements alone (which are, obviously, one-sided), this certainly does sound like the original dream scenario of the telcos to charge content owners to reach customers -- effectively double charging everyone by pretending that their internet connections only reach halfway into the cloud, but to reach any other site, those sites should have to pay up too.
If this is true, and the details do line up, it's rather stunning (and incredibly braindead) that Comcast would make such a demand right now, just as the merger is close to approval. You would think that someone in management would recognize the sort of backlash such a demand would bring. Of course, again, I'm wondering if there are more details here. I wasn't aware of an online movie offering from Level 3, and I'm wondering if Level 3 was actually trying to do something more involved rather than just letting users access online content through existing connections. I'm sure the details will come out soon enough...
Update: And out come the details suggesting that Level 3 is exaggerating. Level 3, as suspected, does not offer a consumer online video offering, but is simply powering Netflix's video offering, and the discussion with Comcast was a standard peering discussion, which happens all the time when internet infrastructure players realize that one of their peers is delivering more traffic than it's taking. In other words, this looks like yet another case of claiming "net neutrality" when there's no actual net neutrality issue...
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The other complaint is at least a bit more interesting -- but details are still lacking. Level 3 claims that Comast has told it that it will need to pay up to let Comcast subscribers access online movies offered by Level 3. I'm not familiar with Level 3's online movie offerings -- so if anyone has details, please let us know. Based on Level 3's statements alone (which are, obviously, one-sided), this certainly does sound like the original dream scenario of the telcos to charge content owners to reach customers -- effectively double charging everyone by pretending that their internet connections only reach halfway into the cloud, but to reach any other site, those sites should have to pay up too.
If this is true, and the details do line up, it's rather stunning (and incredibly braindead) that Comcast would make such a demand right now, just as the merger is close to approval. You would think that someone in management would recognize the sort of backlash such a demand would bring. Of course, again, I'm wondering if there are more details here. I wasn't aware of an online movie offering from Level 3, and I'm wondering if Level 3 was actually trying to do something more involved rather than just letting users access online content through existing connections. I'm sure the details will come out soon enough...
Update: And out come the details suggesting that Level 3 is exaggerating. Level 3, as suspected, does not offer a consumer online video offering, but is simply powering Netflix's video offering, and the discussion with Comcast was a standard peering discussion, which happens all the time when internet infrastructure players realize that one of their peers is delivering more traffic than it's taking. In other words, this looks like yet another case of claiming "net neutrality" when there's no actual net neutrality issue...
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Nintendo: 900K DS units, 600K Wiis sold during Black Friday week
Nintendo released several bundles over the month to capitalize on the Nintendo faithful who seek that new hardware smell. The company launched the delicious Super Mario Bros. 25th anniversary bundles earlier in the month, followed by the pumpkin- and ooze-colored DS bundles featuring Mario Party -- a title one can promptly trade in for a discount on a better game.
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Weird Science finds "the remarkable squidworm," flying snakes
How can you not like a paper that starts with the phrase "the remarkable squidworm"?: That freaky-looking thing you're seeing is an annelid, but it's quite a bit different from the local earthworms that may inhabit your garden. If you exclude the appendages flailing off the front, the squidworm is (thankfully) only about 10cm long. The authors who described it did some basic DNA work to discover its closest relatives, but said that two of its most prominent features—the two rows of paddles and six pairs of tentacle-like arms—are unique to the creature. For squidworm afficionados, the tentacle-like things are apparently nuchal organs.
Some snakes don't actually need a plane to fly: If the squidworm doesn't freak you out because you figure you'll safely avoid the deep ocean, we'll bring you some disturbing news from above the waves: flying snakes. Or at least some snakes that glide really, really well. There's no scientific paper there (although one's in the works), because watching that video should really tell you all you need to know about these reptiles. For those who choose not to watch, the snakes line themselves up to launch off a stick, make a slithering motion to improve their glide, and can actually twist themselves sufficiently to change direction in mid-air.
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Monday, November 29, 2010
Active Asset Allocation Using ETFs: Q&A with Terry Shaunessy of Shaunessy Investment
Arjun Rudra submits:
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Q: Let’s start off by getting to know your macro outlook of the markets.
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The EU's Fundamental Flaw
Cullen Roche submits:
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The fundamental flaw in the EMU is that it is not designed in a manner that allows each government to sufficiently protect its citizens in times of crisis. The allure of joining the euro was greater economic stability, price stability, potentially lower interest rates, cost savings and ultimately a higher standard of living for all involved. Unfortunately, the single currency system has been exposed as being a great boon to growth and a great disaster in fending off depression. A single currency system gives a government no ability to defend itself from outside threats.
Ceding monetary sovereignty gives you no ability to protect yourself from crisis. This is not to imply that a nation that acts irresponsibly should not suffer at all. But what use is a government that merely allows depression to be imposed on all of its citizens – even those who behaved prudently when others did not? Here in the USA we are firing teachers and firefighters because bankers speculated on real estate. Why should a child lose his/her teacher because of a mistake that a banker makes? From a societal perspective that should never be acceptable.
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Steam dishes deals on Metro 2033, Monkey Island 2, Flotilla and more
Tell us which of the discounted games interest you most -- and in the true spirit of Cyber Monday, tell us what you're wearing.
- Aliens vs. Predator (PC) - $6.80
- Beat Hazard (PC) - $2.50
- Dirt 2 (PC) - $5
- Indie Air Pack (PC) - $4.99; includes: Altitude, Dogfighter, Flotilla, Gratuitous Space Battles and Plain Sight
- Mafia 2 (PC) - $37.49
- Metro 2033 (PC) - $10
- Monkey Island 2 SE: LeChuck's Revenge (PC) - $2.50
- Peggle Deluxe (PC + Mac; SteamPlay) - $4.99
- Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (PC) - $2.50
Cyber Monday
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Rethinking Money: Breaking Up Currencies
I remember when I was quite young, my father predicted to me that we'd probably see the end of cash within our lifetimes, as all money would move to electronic money in the form of credit cards (or credit card-like interfaces). Every so often this idea has been discussed, but it usually gets shot down by those who like the anonymity of cash (which is one reason why some governments don't like it). So it's interesting to hear via Slashdot that an Estonian economist is recommending that the country go completely electronic as it adopts the Euro. I would imagine there are some issues with doing so (including the fact that cash and coins from other Eurozone countries would inevitably bleed in).
That said, there have been a few other stories lately that have me thinking about the future of money, and I actually could see a way that countries could move in this general direction without actually getting rid of cash entirely. Last year, we wrote about the question of whether or not the world would move to a single world currency, while simultaneously considering whether or not we'd actually start to see growth in very localized currencies, which are increasingly common in various cities to encourage people to shop locally. Again, neither situation seemed ideal, but were definitely interesting to think about.
Recently, however, Umair Haque wrote up an interesting post, positing that money could be split into three types of currencies which serve three separate functions. The idea is not to break them up by region -- as described above -- but by function. Umair's writeup is a bit opaque, but he notes that currency is used as a store of value, as a medium of exchange and as a unit of account, but those functions can be separated. The end result, would be as follows:
The way Brazil "solved" the issue was to effectively issue a made up new currency to handle some functions of money: mainly the unit of account. You couldn't actually get paid in it, or pay with it, but all the goods in all the stores were suddenly priced with it. Then, rather than having to change the prices every day, each day, the government would put out a rate card with the exchange rate, and people would work off of that. Now, you might say this shouldn't make a difference, but it actually did. It got people thinking in terms of the new "stable" rates, and got them past their general distrust of monetary value. (One side note: this upset some of the wealthy, who were simply making a ton in interest -- and they complained about how this new system meant they actually had to innovate and invest to make money -- which reminded me of certain industries in the US who like to avoid innovating and investing themselves...).
Either way, you had a situation where the currency for prices was perfectly stable at the same time the other currency was still dealing with massive inflation. As Haque points out, you have different currencies with different volatility. Eventually, Brazil switched entirely over to this new currency and made the fake currency a real currency, but there's no reason why you couldn't keep multiple currencies, and break them up into a third bucket as well, as Haque suggests.
I can definitely see how there could be some value in doing so, providing a lot more flexibility, and removing certain risk elements. However, I do wonder if the greater level of confusion might be a problem for many, and lead to huge potential arbitrage opportunities, where the more financially sophisticated folks took advantage of much less financially sophisticated individuals, to swap these different levels of currency around. I'm not convinced either way on this, but it does seem fun to think about the possibilities...
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That said, there have been a few other stories lately that have me thinking about the future of money, and I actually could see a way that countries could move in this general direction without actually getting rid of cash entirely. Last year, we wrote about the question of whether or not the world would move to a single world currency, while simultaneously considering whether or not we'd actually start to see growth in very localized currencies, which are increasingly common in various cities to encourage people to shop locally. Again, neither situation seemed ideal, but were definitely interesting to think about.
Recently, however, Umair Haque wrote up an interesting post, positing that money could be split into three types of currencies which serve three separate functions. The idea is not to break them up by region -- as described above -- but by function. Umair's writeup is a bit opaque, but he notes that currency is used as a store of value, as a medium of exchange and as a unit of account, but those functions can be separated. The end result, would be as follows:
You have three kinds of notes in your wallet. The first you use at the grocery store. The second, at the bank and in the financial markets. The third, between your employer, the state, and public services. Each has very different volatilities and trajectories, because each has very different levels of supply, demand which are, crucially, independent from one another--but interdependent on real wealth, long-run productivity, etc.Now, this may be difficult to comprehend in the abstract. How would that actually work and why would each have different volatilities and trajectories? Well, the good news is that we actually have a real world example of this. A few weeks back the always excellent Planet Money team at NPR did a wonderful episode on how "fake money" saved Brazil from rampant inflation. The story is fascinating, and I highly recommend listening to it. But, it was basically a simplified version of what Haque is suggesting. Brazil had crazy inflation, so crazy that every day, stores had to remark their entire stock to raise prices, and people would rush ahead of the clerk with the price stickers to get "yesterday's" prices.
The way Brazil "solved" the issue was to effectively issue a made up new currency to handle some functions of money: mainly the unit of account. You couldn't actually get paid in it, or pay with it, but all the goods in all the stores were suddenly priced with it. Then, rather than having to change the prices every day, each day, the government would put out a rate card with the exchange rate, and people would work off of that. Now, you might say this shouldn't make a difference, but it actually did. It got people thinking in terms of the new "stable" rates, and got them past their general distrust of monetary value. (One side note: this upset some of the wealthy, who were simply making a ton in interest -- and they complained about how this new system meant they actually had to innovate and invest to make money -- which reminded me of certain industries in the US who like to avoid innovating and investing themselves...).
Either way, you had a situation where the currency for prices was perfectly stable at the same time the other currency was still dealing with massive inflation. As Haque points out, you have different currencies with different volatility. Eventually, Brazil switched entirely over to this new currency and made the fake currency a real currency, but there's no reason why you couldn't keep multiple currencies, and break them up into a third bucket as well, as Haque suggests.
I can definitely see how there could be some value in doing so, providing a lot more flexibility, and removing certain risk elements. However, I do wonder if the greater level of confusion might be a problem for many, and lead to huge potential arbitrage opportunities, where the more financially sophisticated folks took advantage of much less financially sophisticated individuals, to swap these different levels of currency around. I'm not convinced either way on this, but it does seem fun to think about the possibilities...
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