A friend sent me the following chart (click to enlarge). The arrows, shading etc. are his. Note that he has a few questions. If you can answer the second question you could make some money.
The green shaded area was clearly a head-fake by the market. This was (in part) a reaction to the Greenspan comment that the economy had “hit an invisible wall”. Alan was right. Many indicators and a fair number of soothsayers (myself included) saw the signals and concluded that a double dip (or at least a significant slowdown) was in the cards. As far as the markets go that call was dead wrong. The view was that employment would continue to worsen. That of course was spot on. Wrong for the right reason. Yuck.
The green shaded area was clearly a head-fake by the market. This was (in part) a reaction to the Greenspan comment that the economy had “hit an invisible wall”. Alan was right. Many indicators and a fair number of soothsayers (myself included) saw the signals and concluded that a double dip (or at least a significant slowdown) was in the cards. As far as the markets go that call was dead wrong. The view was that employment would continue to worsen. That of course was spot on. Wrong for the right reason. Yuck.
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