Wednesday, April 20, 2011

To Trade or Not to Trade: An Apple Earnings Preview

WhisperNumber submits:

Apple (AAPL) reports fiscal second quarter earnings on April 20t after market close. The whisper number is $5.49, 13 cents ahead of the analysts estimates. Apple has exceeded the whisper number in 38 of the 51 earnings reports for which we have data.

Trading on an earnings event requires an understanding of post-earnings price movement, both after hours and intra-day. We'll take a look at the average post earnings price movement, when those moves occur, and if Apple presents an earnings trade opportunity.

Since Apple reports earnings after market close, it's important to look at after hours trading activity. Over the past four quarters, the average price move in after hours trading following its earnings reports is +2.2%, a limited and positive price move. In other words, if you took a long position prior to the past four earnings reports, you were on the right side of the trade in


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